Bill Blain: Melt up or down?

There is massive danger is a reeling bond market.  If we see rising yields morph into a serious bond market meltdown, the melt-up in stocks could split and go rancid very quickly. Rising rates have massive negative implications for corporate credit and without the juice of further central bank easing – stock markets could well lose heart.

Brexit vs Expertocrats

Expertocrats believe that ordinary people ought to be ruled by their betters — ‘experts’, academics, and other technocrats with suitably impressive trails of letters after their names — and the role of Parliament is to act as a conduit for the dictates of these enlightened beings.

What Would Boris’ Deal Mean for the Economy?

The latest CER report notes that excluding the US from the analysis reduces the estimated hit from 2.9% to 2.2%, while excluding Germany (and thus increasing the weight on the US) increases it to 3.4%. As result, ‘because of this rising degree of error, this will be the last update in the CER series on the cost of Brexit’.

The Johnson Letter: Does It Violate the Benn Act?

The problem with this argument is that the spirit of an Act is only relevant insofar as it can affect the construction of substantive requirements of the law concerned, or show how a Minister or other decision-maker ought to exercise his or her discretion.

Negotiating Brexit

The first step is to make sure that the Prime Minister has the full power to bind the United Kingdom and to obtain the best result through his negotiators. You cannot have a Prime Minister whose moves are undermined by reports of a Parliament that will not accept no deal.

Even More Problems with the Benn Act

The ambiguity in the Act may be a deliberate attempt to wriggle through our constitutional conventions and please two sets of lawyers and two legal requirements.

Brussels Coup d’état

The alternative is to remain a full member, but politically humiliated to the extent that we will be regarded as a demented family member who once tried to leave home and whose affairs in consequence have to be handled from now on by a solicitor.

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