The recent market surge, which started coincidentally with the Fed’s restart of “QE, Not QE,” is very reminiscent of the surge in asset prices we saw at the end of 1999 as the Fed flooded the system with liquidity in advance of the potential “Y2K” issues.
Remember, our job as investors is pretty simple – protect our investment capital from short-term destruction, so we can play the long-term investment game.
Since the Great Financial Crisis started in 2006, global debt has more than doubled from $125 trillion to $260 trillion.
The anti-Russia hysteria in the United States is tying the hands of Donald Trump to act responsibly to protect America.
"The median net worth of households in the middle 20% of income rose 4% in inflation-adjusted terms to $81,900 between 1989 and 2016, the latest available data. For households in the top 20%, median net worth more than doubled to $811,860. And for the top 1%, the increase was 178% to $11,206,000."
A stronger yuan is not ideal for China, but it appears to be a nice tradeoff and something that benefits Trump.
“Today we are borrowing our children’s future with debt. We are witnessing the ‘hosing’ of the young.”
The great northern seats in Labour’s traditional heartlands – Rother Valley, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Wakefield, Bishop Auckland, Sedgefield, Bassetlaw, Grimsby and Bolsover – fell like ninepins. Yet these bourgeois liberals still do not get it. That traditional working-class labour voters are patriots who want their country back.
With the market pushing overbought, extended, and bullish extremes, a correction to resolve this condition is quite likely. The only question is the cause, depth, and duration of that corrective process.
I can’t imagine Paul Volcker, the former Fed Head, who passed away over the weekend, had much time for QE or zero interest rates.
That’s how the bear markets begin. Slowly at first. Then all of a sudden.
It has been predicted the world will end in 2020, so anything other than that will be a win.
US manufacturing remains at a historic low of 11% of US GDP and production output has decline steadily since January of this year.
“This is the most prosperous economy the world has ever seen and it’s going to be a very prosperous economy for the next 100 years.”
This index has gone up 112x since 1973. Once this market turns, the fall can be very rapid.
Short-sided analysts will argue that stocks have been in a bull market since 2009. But the reality is that from 1997 until mid-2013, stocks effectively went nowhere. If your 401K went up, it was due to contributions, not stock market returns.
So as you pay off your student loan debt for decades to come, you can be comforted by the fact that the associate provost for diversity and inclusion at your college is bringing home more than $100,000 a year.
While most economic data points are backward-looking statistics, like GDP, the CFNAI is a forward-looking metric that gives some indication of how the economy is likely to look in the coming months.
At this point, companies listed on our stock exchanges have accumulated a total of almost 10 trillion dollars of debt.
Between 2012-2017, the cost of violence increased by 11% to $14.6 trillion—mainly due to rising violence in Syria, Libya, Yemen, and other parts of the Middle East and North Africa.
"The the biggest cost of leaving the euro is the banking sector itself, so while it's failing, the extra cost of leaving will actually be minuscule."
Buckle up and hold on tight!
Longer-term, a deeper correction remains likely, particularly as we head into 2020. If economic and earnings data don’t begin to improve markedly, as currently expected by Wall Street, the current overvaluation of asset price is going to become more problematic to justify.
"The answer is of course: It won’t be paid back. And since every debt is someone else’s asset, you can imagine what that ultimately means. A great many people are a lot less wealthy than they think. It is all phantom wealth that can disappear in an eyeblink."