The trade talks are the first item on our agenda as a fully independent country, and here are the reasons why they are likely to be successful.
Among the areas liberalised are oil and gas exploration; molybdenum, tin, antimony and fluorite exploration and mining; small city urban gas and heat facilities; domestic marine shipping agencies; certain value-added telecom services; wild fauna and flora protection; and, movie theatre construction and operation.
Trade skirmishes will continue – and even escalate, especially in Tech. One example is China warning Germany not to join the US effective blockade of Huawei. If Germany excludes the Chinese 5G wireless gear, China will threaten car imports – which is Germany’s weak spot.
Even if a ‘deep and comprehensive’ deal could reduce these by say one-third, the economic impact would be tiny: prices of exports worth 13% of UK GDP might perhaps be 1 to 1.5% lower, so even if the price elasticity of demand for these exports was 2, they might rise 2-3% and UK GDP might be 0.3-0.4% higher. This is very small beer.
Cold Storage is a chain of grocery stores. Well that does not quite do it justice. Imagine your favourite Waitrose, add some Harrods and Fortnums and you are close. The chain, majority British owned, has stores throughout S.E. Asia and is spreading to China too.
We can be sure that the EU will do everything it can to stop the UK from being able to adopt policies that make us more competitive. This does not mean lower standards, but better standards and regulations designed by UK legislators for UK conditions and not by EU bureaucrats.
The whole of agri-food sector exports to the EU comprise only 1% of output of goods and services in Northern Ireland or in other words 4% of sales to the outside world. Even so, almost one billion pounds of business is at stake and 5,000 jobs could be at risk plus parts of farmer’s incomes if the whole sector were to go under.
The Journal writers explained that, “The cold weather is a big threat to vulnerable crops. Only 22% of corn in North Dakota was mature as of Oct. 7, and 36% in South Dakota. In the 18 biggest corn-producing states, 58% of this year’s crop was mature, versus an average of 85% by that date over the previous five years, according to the USDA.
China’s decision to stop buying commodities like soybeans from U.S. farmers has already done irreversible damage to the agricultural industry. Soybeans are rotting in silos and farmers have no one to buy their goods – meaning they will likely begin missing payments if they haven’t already.
The bad news is that a recession is likely in the next year or so, but the good news is that one year is a long time to prepare. There is little, if anything, you can do on your own to stop any kind of global economic meltdown. But you can get yourself prepared for what’s coming.