Lance Roberts: Lessons Forgotten Are Relearned During Bear Markets
"Bear markets are always a reminder of lessons forgotten."
"Bear markets are always a reminder of lessons forgotten."
In the last six weeks, the Fed, BoJ and ECB have issued statements saying they are prepared to buy “unlimited” amounts of bonds.
"Just remember, when the market does bottom, there will be no one wanting to “buy.” "
"Capital steadily flowed into passive investment vehicles for decades. This created a self-reflexive loop..."
"Each job created in energy-related areas has had a “ripple effect” of creating 2.8 jobs elsewhere in the economy from piping to coatings, trucking and transportation, restaurants, and retail."
"If it goes wrong we face social unrest, revolutions and, because all the environment, overpopulation, and poverty issues remain, don’t rule out an escalation of resource driven wars."
"... if you need to withdraw some emergency cash from your 401(k) ... you may run into challenges."
"... yesterday oil traders who owned oil derivatives realized that if they continued to hold these derivatives, they (the traders) would have to actually take delivery on the physical oil they owned."
"...the markets are addicted to Fed interventions"
"West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery fell more than 100% to settle at negative $37.63 per barrel, meaning producers would pay traders to take the oil off their hands."
"Pricey shut-ins or even bankruptcies could now be cheaper for some operators, instead of paying tens of dollars to get rid of what they produce."
"What this all means is there will be no “V-shaped” recovery."
"Establishing a just and equitable distribution of mutually raised funds to bail out private sectors across borders will be politically almost impossible."
"It’s a concerted campaign to shift consumers towards a digital mode of commerce that can easily be monitored, tracked, tabulated, mined for data, hacked, hijacked and confiscated when convenient."
"...tax revenue has gone up less than six times since 1981 whilst debt has gone up 31 times."
"Many people over age 62 who wanted to delay Social Security, which can often be the best overall retirement income strategy to maximize long-term Social Security benefits, may want to consider claiming benefits sooner."
"And then there’s the VIX which typically moves higher when stocks collapse. The VIX is forming a bullish falling wedge formation which could resolve in a big move higher."
While "the Goldman Sachs syndicate head" brags "of his record first quarter new issue revenues in bonds...People don’t have enough cash to put food on the table for their kids."
"There is little reason to be overly aggressive in your positioning currently."
"...the Fed is coming up with lots of new ways to give handouts to the very wealthy."
"Risk isn’t just something for the other guy to worry about. It is the nature of life itself. They can avoid it for another phase of the cycle but they can’t avoid it forever."
"If you are hoping the “bear market” is over, and have jumped “back in” with all your capital, you are in “good company,” as many others, judging by my twitter feed, have done the same. Just be prepared to be disappointed in the months ahead."
"The Fed, in an effort to stop this, announced several weeks ago that it would be buying everything. And I do mean EVERYTHING."