The centerpiece of the cult film, Weekend at Bernie’s, is the corpse carted about by two party animals. Through the magic of Hollywood that Bernie did not stink. The same cannot be said of Bernie Sanders and his crotchety escapee from the old man muppet balcony, Joe Biden. Yes, I have heard the gushing and swooning over the alleged resurrection of Sleepy Joe who was declared the winner in 9 of the 14 contests. But look at the actual votes and percentages compared to 2016 and the outlook is not as rosy.
Here are the major conclusions:
- The Democrats are on track for a brokered convention. Biden’s wins were not dominating in terms of taking most of the delegates. Yes, he is in the delegate lead but the numbers do not appear to support a first ballot win.
- Bernie did far worse in 2020 in term of percentage of votes, which means he won fewer delegates in these contests than he did in 2016.
- It appear Republicans are engaged in an Operation Chaos by voting in the Democrat primaries.
- Trump is likely to win at least 5 of the 9 states that had open primaries.
- Trump is well positioned to win in at least 3 of the 5 closed primary states in the general election.
- The Democrat establishment effort to stop Bernie appears to be achieving some success. Still, he will be a factor in the Democrat Convention in July and there is no sign that his supporters will eagerly switch to vote for Biden in the General.
Let us start with the 9 open primary states:
Alabama: As I predicted in Tuesday’s pre-primary article, the total votes were slightly higher compared to 2016. Bernie got less votes this year than in 2016. Biden scooped up 40 of the 52 delegates. And Trump, in a non-competitive primary, almost doubled the total number of Democrat votes.
| 2016 | 2020 |
|---|---|
| Clinton — 309,928 | Biden — 286,065 (63%) |
| Sanders — 76,399 (20%) | Sanders — 74,888 (17%) |
| Bloomberg — 52,750 (12%) |
Arkansas: Bernie’s percent and vote total fell way below his 2016 performance. Biden also failed to match Hillary’s vote. Democrat turnout barely kept pace with 2016. Trump’s 237,863 was more than the combined Democrat votes.
| 2016 | 2020 |
|---|---|
| Clinton — 144,580 | Biden — 92,586 (40.5%) |
| Sanders — 64,868 (30%) | Sanders — 51,117 (22.4%) |
| Bloomberg — 38,213 (17%) |
Minnesota: I show no votes for Trump. He was awarded all the Republican delegates. It appears that many Republicans turned out and voted in the Democrat primary. Bernie almost doubled his votes but his percentage of the votes was cut in half. Bottomline, the top three Democrats carved up the delegates with no decisive winner.
| 2016 | 2020 |
|---|---|
| Clinton — 78,381 | Biden — 287,464 (39%) |
| Sanders — 126,229 (62%) | Sanders — 222,530 (30%) |
| Warren — 114,754 (15%) |
Tennessee: Donald Trump won 380,276. Democrat turnout was larger, but that may reflect Republicans and Independents crossing over to vote in the Democrat primary. Operation chaos? Bernie won gathered more votes this go round but his percentage of the total fell. Again, no dominant delegate win that would push Biden over the threshold of the number required to get the nomination.
| 2016 | 2020 |
|---|---|
| Clinton — 245,304 | Biden — 215,005 (42%) |
| Sanders — 120,333 (33%) | Sanders — 128,688 (25%) |
| Bloomberg — 79,638 (16%) |
Texas: Trump collected 1,889,006. More than all the top Democrats combined. Once again, Bernie got more votes compared to 2016 but a lower percentage. That means fewer delegates. Biden did not match Hillary’s numbers. Bloomberg ate into his base of support.
| 2016 | 2020 |
|---|---|
| Clinton — 935,080 | Biden — 716,030 (34.5%) |
| Sanders — 475,561 (34%) | Sanders — 622,360 (30%) |
| Bloomberg — 298,262 (14%) |
Utah: Trump’s 277,307 votes exceeded the combined votes of all Democrats. Bernie slightly improved on his 2016 performance, but his percentage was cut dramatically from 2016. Biden and Bloomberg combined matched Bernie.
| 2016 | 2020 |
|---|---|
| Clinton — 15,666 | Biden — 31,571 (17%) |
| Sanders — 61,333 (80%) | Sanders — 62,786 (35%) |
| Bloomberg — 30,366 (17%) |
Vermont: Vermont is a solid Democrat state. Yet, its hometown Senator was down dramatically compared to 2016. Total votes roughly matched the 2016 turnout. Another kiss your sister moment.
| 2016 | 2020 |
|---|---|
| Clinton — 18,335 | Biden — 34,734 (22%) |
| Sanders — 115,863 (86%) | Sanders — 80,121 (51%) |
| Warren — 19,816 (13%) |
Virginia: There was no Republican primary. I know for a fact that Republicans turned out to vote in the Democrat primary. Biden garnet more votes compared to Hillary in 2016 but did not match her percentage. Sanders? More votes but a big fall off in the percentage compared to 2016.
| 2016 | 2020 |
|---|---|
| Clinton — 503,358 | Biden — 705,800 (53%) |
| Sanders — 275,507 (35%) | Sanders — 306,024 (23%) |
| Warren — 142,470 (12%) |
Now for the closed primaries:
California: Trump won 1,483,642. Only 93% of the vote is in. The numbers on the Democrat side are quite interesting. They are running well below the numbers that turned out in 2016. Less than 50% so far. What the hell?
| 2016 | 2020 |
|---|---|
| Clinton — 2,745,302 | Biden — 778,697 (25%) |
| Sanders — 2,381,722 (46%) | Sanders — 1,049,065 (34%) |
| Bloomberg — 437,388 (14%) | |
| Warren — 374,820 (12%) |
Colorado: Comparison to 2016 is not valid. Colorado had a caucus system. They did a primary this year. In terms of percentage Bernie underperformed significantly compared to 2016. Biden and Bloomberg combined exceeded Bernie’s votes. Trump’s 599,816 was more than the top three Democrats combined.
| 2016 | 2020 |
|---|---|
| Clinton — 49,314 | Biden — 184,262 (24%) |
| Sanders — 72,115 (59%) | Sanders — 282,462 (36%) |
| Bloomberg — 160,240 (21%) |
Maine: Maine held a caucus in 2016 and awarded most of its delegates to Hillary. This time Biden and Bernie essentially tied. Trump was awarded all delegates without a vote.
| 2016 | 2020 |
|---|---|
| Clinton — | Biden — 68,396 (34%) |
| Sanders — | Sanders — 65,894 (33%) |
| Warren — 31,514 (16%) |
Massachusetts: The top three Democrats did not match the vote totals racked up by Hillary and Bernie in 2016. Total Democrat turnout in the 2020 contest roughly matched that of 2016. Bernie did much worse in terms of votes and percentage compared to 2016. Trump is not competitive, it appears, in Massachusetts.
| 2016 | 2020 |
|---|---|
| Clinton — 603,784 | Biden — 470,294 (34%) |
| Sanders — 586,716 (49%) | Sanders — 373,173 (27%) |
| Warren — 299,733 (21%) |
North Carolina: 747,038 votes for Donald Trump. Republicans did not have to turnout. More Democrats showed up in 2020. Bernie got a less votes compared to 2016 and went from 43% to 24%.
| 2016 | 2020 |
|---|---|
| Clinton — 616,346 | Biden — 568,581 (43%) |
| Sanders — 460,316 (43%) | Sanders — 318,872 (24%) |
| Bloomberg — 171,823 (13%) | |
| Warren — 138,502 (10%) |
Oklahoma: Donald Trump’s 273,562 exceeded the total votes for the Democrats who won delegates. Bernie had a major fall off compared to 2016. Biden fell short of Hillary’s 2016 numbers. Everyone got some delegates.
| 2016 | 2020 |
|---|---|
| Clinton — 139,338 | Biden — 117,552 (39%) |
| Sanders — 174,054 (56%) | Sanders — 77,302 (25%) |
| Bloomberg — 42,243 (14%) |
Republished by permission of Sic Semper Tyrannis.
Picture by Cory Doctorow from Beautiful Downtown Burbank, USA – Big crowd 2, Bernie Sanders Rally, LA Convention Center, Los Angeles, California, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0, Link. Picture cropped.
